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Super Tuesday: The Aftermath

February 6, 2008

First, the Tennessee break down (fist tap to Adam Groves)
• Sullivan (highly populated county in upper East TN) – Clinton 65, Obama 27
• Hamilton (Chattanooga) – Clinton 44, Obama 52
• Shelby (Memphis) (still only 34% in) – Clinton 27, Obama 70
• Knox (Knoxville) – Clinton 49, Obama 44
• Davidson (Nashville) – Clinton 39, Obama 57
Obama carried the major metropolitan areas with their high minority populations and higher per capita income, with the exception of Knoxville, the more conservative, historically Republican city. Even there it was close. This suggests (proves) that Clinton won Edwards voters and confirms conventional wisdom that she won White voters in the rural counties (which in many cases may be the same pool). Clinton’s win was a foregone conclusion here. Obama didn’t spend time here (though he spent money).
Nationally the picture is different. Obama made inroads where he was weakest, with White males, which suggests those Edwards supporters moved to Obama.

As probably everyone is proclaiming now, the race is likely to go to the end, a battle of delegates rather than marquee victories. An average of the various calculations regarding the delegate count shows the race is dead even.

Plunditry
It’s interesting to see how these results play in pundit land, as what they’re talking about will be what we’re talking about, inevitably. Already, James Walcott admits that the “sexist pile on” by the pundit class of Sen. Clinton may well have influenced his vote in New York. At the same time, he suggests that those who may vote for Obama on matters of race are daft. Errr . . . so a sympathy vote for a woman is okay? (See also Tom Watson). To Walcott’s credit, he states his belief that Clinton has the stuff and Obama doesn’t. He can picture Clinton dealing with a “recalcitrant Republican faction,”not Obama. Her voting record suggests otherwise . . . Still, if the estimable Walcott can see she’s a fighter (Just ask Jim Cooper) I really don’t think she needs us feeling sorry for her.

A great many are poo-poo-ing the Kennedy effect, from Walter Shapiro at Salon to Rachel Skylar at Huffington. This seems to be based on the fact that the Kennedys didn’t help Obama win in Massachusetts. How quickly they forget. Obama was trailing 2:1 in that state months ago. Obama has closed the gap nationally down to the margin of error. Arguing that the Obama momentum has died down is just goofy. In fact, it’s still on the upswing. If he loses the nomination, it may not be “too much, too soon,” but “too little, too late.”

White Guys Can’t Pump
Speaking of White guys, some are still speculating/hoping/fearing an endorsement coming from two White guys, Al Gore and John Edwards. Conventional wisdom sez Edwards endorses soon, perhaps when Obama travels to New Orleans. There’s been speculation Gore will speak from the heavens after Super Tuesday to take the phrase “Clinton victory” off the headlines. Thing is, there’s been no clear victory; most headlines will read “the fight continues to the convention” or some such.
I’m still of the opinion that Gore will keep his word and stay out of the endorsement game. However, he may well be busy making phone calls to those ephemeral “Super Delegates” on whose consideration the nomination may be decided.

Waitin’ and Debatin’ For oh so Long
This bit is likely to get lost in the media cycles to come, but let us not forget that Sen. Clinton has suggested the candidates have a debate a week. Yes! Get Obama off the campaign trail where he kills and get him bogged down in an endless cycle of debate prep. Good idea if Obama would fall for the banana in the tailpipe gag.

Ame Ni Mo Makezu
Meanwhile, the Dork family was in the path of the storms that wrecked homes and lives Tuesday night. It was a scary moment, especially for the Little Dork, as the alert siren screamed most of the night and hail pelted our roof. Though he was brave, he absolutely refused to go to bed. We’re fine, though. Condolences to those who are not.

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3 Comments leave one →
  1. February 9, 2008 12:02 am

    I wonder, though, with the Republican side pretty much settled, does it help or hurt the Dems that the battle still rages? It seems to me Obama has a better shot in a national election vs. McCain than ol’ Hilly. But then, neither being able to claim a decisive victory on tuesday seems to muddle the story a bit, no?

  2. February 11, 2008 5:22 pm

    Generally that would hurt the Dems to have one of their candidates have to undergo a long term battle and keep raising funds. However, Obama seems to have found a bottomless well in the small/online donors who will keep giving without reaching their individual caps. I imagine there are enough donors keeping their powder dry until a winner is decided so that they may give to the DNC and other organizations as well as the candidate who wins.

    I’ve seen more convincing arguments that Obama stands a better chance against McCain than for Sen Clinton. I think they’re right based on the numbers the present. Moreover, old school intuitive politics tells us that Obama draws more votes from White independent male voters because of Sen. Clinton’s gender.

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  1. Volunteer Voters » Will Al Gore Endorse Now?

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