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Pennsylvania Prediction

April 21, 2008

Haven’t had much time to post, but I do have time for a quick educated guess at the outcome of tomorrow’s primary in PA. I’m calling it Clinton by 5. I think a last minute surge in new registrations will favor Obama in that he will close the gap to 5. Mind you, Clinton was predicted to win in a blow out just a month ago. With more time, Obama probably could have overtaken Clinton, and sure, the “bitter” comment threw a monkey wrench into the comeback plans.

With Clinton unable to maintain leads and having gone into debt again just to stay ahead, I hate to say it but I will join the voices of those calling for her to concede after tomorrow. If she manages to hold expectations (winning by more than 10%) then she retains the privilege of continuing this contest.

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3 Comments leave one →
  1. loomisnews permalink
    April 21, 2008 11:50 am

    But Hillary is history! History, I tell you!

    http://loomisnews.wordpress.com/

    “PA prediction for the ‘Change Election’”

  2. April 21, 2008 4:20 pm

    This will be the fourth attempt for Obama to knock Clinton out of the race. He’s been incapable of doing so, which demonstrates his lack of feasibility as a candidate.

    There are good reasons why the superdelegates should ignore the Obama Campaigns cries for all Superdelegates to swing for Obama and instead endorse Mrs Clinton

    http://clintonista.wordpress.com/2008/04/21/why-clinton-is-more-likely-to-beat-mccain-in-november/

  3. April 21, 2008 4:27 pm

    One can just as easily spin this as “Clinton is incapable of holding large leads, which demonstrates her lack of feasibility as a candidate.” or:
    “Clinton is incapable of raising the large sums of money required to win in the general election, which demonstrates her lack of feasibility as a candidate.”

    Arnone reads the numbers in a way favorable to the candidate he is supporting. I seriously doubt, as he suggests, that women will abandon the Dem ticket in Novemember to vote for McCain. Is he serious?

    I don’t think winning PA by 5 is going to save Clinton’s bacon.

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