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My Electoral Map: Obama Wins

October 30, 2008

On the radio, I predicted around 300 EV for Obama. I must revise this now. I’m moving into the Obama landslide territory. I was thinking Obama might lose Nevada and possibly Florida, however I’m giving those to Obama now, along with Colorado and North Dakota. [for some reason my map isn’t showing up in the posts, haven’t sorted out why, but the EV count I have is 356]

to the map

1) Early vote numbers are strong in most states, including “battleground” states. Usually favors the Democrat, and in states where they have party affiliation available, Dems are outpacing Republicans in the main.
2) No Bradley Effect. a) Obama’s polling lead is too large, he’s above 50 in many states; b) The number of first time registrants voting early (something like 100K in FL, for example) looks big. We know, ACORN or not, Obama has registered the vast majority of them. The new registrants aren’t generally figured into polls that look at “likely voters.” Some polls are accounting for the new folks, some are not, but these numbers will lead to Obama “over performing.”
3) No signs of tightening. Every outlet agrees with this when they parse numbers.
4) Obama is just taking up all the space in the news cycles. The double whammy of the infomercial and the joint appearance with Prez Clinton dominated space yesterday and today. When they aren’t talking about Obama, they are talking about Palin. Does anyone even care that McCain is running anymore?
5) No October surprise coming. It’s too late for any Wright ads to make an impact. For anything new to hit, it would have to hit tomorrow because the serious news outlets will spend the day fact checking and doubling down on sources. If it hits Friday, it’s buried in the weekend, and Monday will be too late.
6) The bandwagon effect. This is for the undecideds. Those who are not holding out over Obama’s ethnicity could likely go for Obama because he’s winning in the polls.

The two caveats here are that the Rove style GOP GOTV efforts haven’t started yet and many Obama supporters may be lulled into complacency.

Nevertheless, it’s all over but the shouting, whether it’s 300 EV or 370.


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